Admittedly I don’t have a huge number of Republican friends, but I have some. If you are one, this is what I have to say: You are a good person. My hunch is that you probably did not vote for Trump but for a third party candidate. Much of what he said and his personality was as disturbing to you as it was to me and most Democrats and many Independents. But now that he is president-elect, you are having second thoughts. After all, he was elected fairly even though he did not win the popular vote. Besides he could move more to the center. He could soften his position on immigration and on free trade. He could move toward the Republican ideals of smaller government, reduced spending and balanced budgets. Let’s give him a chance. Paul Ryan is supporting him and Lindsay Graham is mellowing a bit as well. You think that he might actually be ok.

Not so fast. All indications as judged by his early appointments show he is moving in the direction of what I call the Dark Side. Think again about what he said he was going to do during the campaign and what it appears he actually will try to do and ask yourself, is this the kind of person who represents my values and is this the kind of country I want to live in.

This is what he has told us he is going to do:

1. Build a wall, which few experts think makes any sense.
2. Deport at least six million undocumented immigrants, many of them who have lived here for years and many who are allowed to work because they came here as children and are part of the American Dream Act.
3. Curtail open trade by imposing 35-45% tariffs on Mexican and Chinese imports, which would result in higher prices and probably cause a global recession.
4. Appoint a climate change denier as head of the EPA, get out of the Paris climate accord, kill all of Obama’s environmental initiatives and drastically shrink the EPA.
5. Get out of the Iran nuclear deal.
6. Put through massive tax cuts for the rich with no off setting budget cuts. 
7. Ignore the need for deficit neutral budgets and entitlement reform.
8. Build massive infrastructure projects, with no dollars to pay for them.
9. Cozy up with Putin and pull back from NATO.
10. Put a ban on Muslims entering the country and institute surveillance at mosques.

My question to you is this: which of these initiatives (and many others) do you agree with. How do they square with your traditional Republican values of small government and responsible spending? How do they gibe with your human values of kindness and mercy and fairness? My hope is that you support few if any of these initiatives. Trump is not a Republican. He is a populist with the temperament of a strongman, who if he gets his way would move the country in a very dangerous direction.

So what should you do? You should not support these un-Republican initiatives and let your elected officials know this. Republicans now hold the majorities in both the House and the Senate and will continue to do so. Republicans are the first line of defense. Responsible Republicans should put the brakes on Trump’s actions which could lead to disaster. Democrats will join the fight. If Trump does in fact move forward on his Dark Agenda, the country and the planet Earth are in deep trouble. What will you tell your grandchildren you did to keep the worst from happening? Never have the stakes been higher.

Sincerely,

Joe Howell

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I want to give Donald Trump the benefit of a doubt. I want to believe that most of the wild and reckless things he said were intended to capture the alienated, blue collar vote, which he did. I want to believe that now that he has the prize he will try to be a good president and represent all the people, not just his angry base. He will back away from most of the outlandish things he said—building the wall, massive deportations, huge tax breaks for the rich, climate change denials, trade restrictions with Mexico and China (probably leading to trade wars), curtailing freedom of the press, bringing torture back, outlawing the right to choose, abandoning NATO, encouraging nuclear proliferation, and many others. Surely he will have to do some of these things to please his supporters, but he will move more moderately and try to reach out to Democrats to find some areas of common ground. The remarks he made following his victory were a sign of hope. After all, his election is hardly a mandate since most of the battleground states were very close, and he did not win the popular vote.

The alternative to a moderate, balanced approach is in my view disaster for the country and for our small, blue planet.

We will know what we are in for very soon. It will depend on whom he appoints and whom he chooses as his closetest advisors. So far we have mixed signals. Appointing Priebus as chief of staff sends a signal of a more moderate approach along the lines of what you would expect from a traditional Republican—not to my liking but not doomsday. Stephen K Brannon is doomsday. He is the champion of the Alt-Right. His message is one of hate, dividing the country and promoting right wing extremists. I do not see how these two can work together for very long. Whom will Trump listen to? Who will win out?

The other early warning sign is immigration. Yesterday on “Sixty Minutes” Trump boasted that he would move forward with a wall/fence and deport between two and three million illegal immigrants “immediately.” How this delicate issue is handled could be the whole ballgame. If he sticks to his pledge to focus on the “bad hombres” –mainly immigrants with violent, antisocial police records, this is probably something the country can handle. This is really no different from what Obama has been doing. Very few experts, however, believe that there are anywhere near three million, violent felons who are undocumented living in the U.S.

If he expands the target population to deport the American Dreamers, who have been granted work permits by Obama, we are talking pain and suffering to the extreme. There are over 750,000 of these people, who came here as children and have made lives for themselves. Many are now married and have families. Perhaps as many as two million people would be affected when taking into account spouses and children. I know some of these folks. They love America. They are making a contribution. They are hard working. They are wonderful people. Our businesses depend on them. To start to round them up and deport them would put us on a path not that dissimilar to the path Hitler took Germany in the 1930s. Sure, some will say this is a gross exaggeration and certainly there are some big differences. But think about the damage that this would do to people who are, yes, innocent. Most came here as children with their parents. And similar damage would be done to others who overstayed visas or took extraordinary risks to get to a country which offered them a better chance. They did break the law to get here, but most have now been here for years and have become a fabric of our country. Deportation is not the answer. Instead we need a comprehensive immigration law similar to what the Senate passed on a bipartisan basis. Will that happen?

We do not know the answer to any of these questions, but we are going to find out pretty soon. Those who did not vote for Trump and now fear his presidency—and that is a majority of Americans—will not and cannot roll over and play dead, watching from the sidelines as our nation changes in ways unthinkable. It is not a pretty picture.

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In my first post election post I identified two directions the Trump Presidency might take:

There are two directions Trump can take. First, he can move toward the middle and try to achieve some reconciliation. This would involve backing away from massive deportations and building the wall and trying to work out compromises on some items, like infrastructure, that the Democrats can go along with. He will have to do some things like kill Obama Care because the Republicans will demand it–and that is a terrible thing for 20 million people who now have insurance–but perhaps the “replacement” could build on the structure now in place. Getting out of the Paris Climate Accord could be delayed until, say, Miami was under water when even the Republicans will get the picture. Since it is not readily apparent that Trump himself actually believes any of the things he says, maybe there is some hope for compromise since presumably he wants to go down as a good president in order to boost his fragile ego.

 The second direction is the red meat direction—more outrageous remarks to stir the masses, radical changes to health care and immigration and a move toward strongman leadership. This is always what has scared me the most. I have made the comparison to the 1930s in Europe when the most enlightened countries on earth gave in to Fascism. That does not appear to be a fear at this moment for us, but when you have a “ruler” with personal insecurity and a mandate for radical change, you can’t rule anything out.

It is too early to see a definite trend. On the one hand he seems to be moderating some of his positions such as locking up Hillary, demolishing all of Obama Care and building a “beautiful wall” starting on day one. On the other hand there is no indication as to the status of the massive deportation plan, and the NY Times reported yesterday that the likely new director of the EPA is a climate change denier. The early warning signs will be whom he appoints as cabinet members and key advisors.

It is important that progressives stay involved and follow the transition very carefully. When Trump moves toward the middle we should praise him. We know that he responds to approvals and wants to be liked. When he moves to the right we should fight him vigorously with all the non violent, peaceful tools we have to work with. To simply roll over and take what we get would be to allow his outrageous agenda to move forward. My son-in-law remarked yesterday that the conditions are similar in many ways to the conditions present in the early 1960s when the civil rights movement was starting to reach its prime. It was one of those rare times when the choice between good and evil was so obvious. And for those of us who chose to get involved in the struggle, it was one of the most important and proud times of our lives. That choice may again be available.

 

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Now that I have pulled myself off the floor of despair, I have a few observations about what could be one of the most significant elections in American history.

This was America’s Brexit moment. It is pretty clear that the Brexit movement in the UK was a thumb in the eye of the elite by people who felt left behind in the new global economy. The message: we have had enough.

First and foremost I believe that electing Trump, the anti establishment, “champion of change” candidate is sending a similar message. Bernie Sanders picked up on the alienation and discontent of those left behind and so did The Donald though Bernie was hearing the voices of intellectuals and lefties while Donald was listening mainly to the white working class. They both got it, however, and the message resonated with a lot of people. Bottom line: there are a lot of Americans who are sick and tired of stagnant wages, congressional grid lock, changing demographics, alternative lifestyles, changing cultural norms, and a deck that is stacked in favor of the elite. They want change.

The irony , of course, is that Trump was born with a silver spoon in his mouth and and is quintessentially elite himself. His appeal apparently is his outrageous personality, a product of reality TV, which allows him to say “politically incorrect” things that many of his supporters feel but cannot express and to make the solution to their malaise real simple—throw out the aliens, build a wall, stop free trade, kill Obama Care and climate deals, and get tough with foreign powers—in short, to “Make America Great Again.” Think about the good old days when men ruled the roost, minorities were kept in their place, jobs were secure and life was good. Though many of us think he is a sham and a phony, we now know that his message worked.

A second irony is that the centerpiece of his economic proposals is a huge tax break for the rich and more trickle-down economics, which would do very little to help his alienated constituency. He is opposed to a minimum wage and skeptical of safety net programs. But that does not seem to matter. He is not part of the political establishment. He is not part of those people. He might not be part of the white working and lower middle class but he would be their champion.

Enter Hillary Clinton. We liberals did not get it, but from the outset she had three things going against her. First, she is the political establishment personified. Second, she is a woman, and sexism continues to be alive and well; and third and perhaps most important, she positioned herself essentially as running for Obama’s third term. We progressives did not get it because we love Obama. We want to see a continuation of what he started. We value experience, expertise, and competence and support her message of inclusiveness. We did not realize that precisely those things were what were on trial in the election of 2016. We missed this as did most of the press.

Given the fact the Hillary Clinton was the status quo candidate in an era of antiestablishment fervor, it is remarkable that she did as well as she did. She actually won the popular vote (by a hair) and was only one or two battleground states away from winning the election. We remain a divided country, pretty much straight down the middle. In other words, despite the populist revolt, half the country was in her corner.

The pundits I listened to today on the radio told us the reason she lost was also due in part to an “enthusiasm gap” and to her wonkish personality. They add that she never recovered from the Comey email investigation sandbag and that her “basket of deplorables” comment stuck with her. And, of course, the Wiki Leaks and email controversy just never went away. Despite all this she almost won. She ran a great campaign and held up under incredible pressure. She would have made a fine president.

So what happens next?

The first move is up to Trump. Who is this guy anyway? What does he really believe? What of all the horrible and outrageous things that he says he is going to do is he actually going to pursue?

There are two directions he can take. First, he can move toward the middle and try to achieve some reconciliation. This would involve backing away from massive deportations and building the wall and trying to work out compromises on some items, like infrastructure, that the Democrats can go along with. He will have to do some things like kill Obama Care because the Republicans will demand it–and that is a terrible thing for 20 million people who now have insurance–but perhaps the “replacement” could build on the structure now in place. Getting out of the Paris Climate Accord could be delayed until, say, Miami was under water when even the Republicans will get the picture. Since it is not readily apparent that Trump himself actually believes any of the things he says, maybe there is some hope for compromise since presumably he wants to go down as a good president in order to boost his fragile ego.

The second direction is the red meat direction—more outrageous remarks to stir the masses, radical changes to health care and immigration and a move toward strongman leadership. This is always what has scared me the most. I have made the comparison to the 1930s in Europe when the most enlightened countries on earth gave in to Fascism. That does not appear to be a fear at this moment for us, but when you have a “ruler” with personal insecurity and a mandate for radical change, you can’t rule it out. Our democracy is fragile and cannot ever be taken for granted.

There is also much we ordinary people can do. The split between the two camps is very real. Regardless what happens on Capitol Hill or in the White House, we need to reach out to others we can’t understand and try to work together to move forward. How this happens right now is pretty much up for grabs; but if it does not happen, the Republic will be in even worse trouble.

 

 

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America is fed up, we are told. The country is weary of the Obama years, weary of a dysfunctional Congress, of stagnant wages, of wars that never seem to end, and of an unfair economy where the rich keep getting richer and everyone else struggles. We are also told that America is fearful. We are fearful of the changing complexion of the American population, of a world where America’s role is diminishing and we are losing respect, and of an economy where more jobs are shipped off shore. While probably the majority of people in the U.S. do not subscribe to this doomsday scenario and while the performance of the economy in 2015 shows rather extraordinary progress on employment and wages, enough people do feel this way so that Donald Trump can say almost anything he wants —regardless of how outrageous or outright wrong it is—and still remain the darling of the disaffected. He is for many the agent of change.

I believe that this is an important factor that gives Trump his appeal. “He is different.” “He is a business man, not a politician.” “He tells it like it is.” “He will make America great again.” “He is the one who will bring about real change.” We hear this from man-in-the-street news interviews all the time.

But the question is what might this change look like and how might it affect ordinary people, our country and the world? We have seen “real change” before. We saw it in Russia about 100 years ago, in Germany and Italy starting in the 1930s and China in the 1940s. Change is not always for the better. What might change look like under a Trump administration?

Of course, it is impossible to answer this question definitively since Trump is prone to saying anything that comes to his mind and because he does not appear to have any carefully conceived policy initiatives. But let’s pause for a moment and look at what he has said. Assuming he could actually pull off what he says he is going to do, this is what change in America would look like under a Trump presidency:

1. We will get the Trump wall. There is no way Trump could backtrack on this since he champions building a huge, “beautiful,” wall at the Mexican border at virtually every rally. The cost would run about $50 billion we are told by experts and would be paid for entirely by Mexico we are told by Trump, who has implied that he has a secret method for getting Mexico to pay. Really? Some believe that this will involve freezing the assets and bank accounts of all people of Mexican descent and preventing anyone from sending money to family members in Mexico, an action that would tank their economy and force them to capitulate. Such action, of course, would probably require congressional approval and would set a dangerous precedent. If Mexico stands firm, what next? War? The likely scenario would be to add another $50 billion to the budget. Where are the dollars going to come from to cover that?

2. The big roundup will begin. Trump continues to make this another centerpiece of his rallies. There are supposedly between 11 million and 13 million undocumented residents living in the United States. Trump has stated repeatedly that about half—six million people—will be booted out of the country “immediately.” Trump will establish a “Deportation Force” to find them, capture them, jail them and then send them back to where they came from. If children are separated from their parents or husbands from wives, so be it. The targets will mainly be the “bad apples,” and after they go, he will reconsider what happens to the rest. It is uncertain how long it will take, how many new prisons or “temporary holding grounds” will have to be constructed or how large the Deportation Force will have to be, but experts have estimated a minimum cost of another $50 billion. He has not yet suggested that Mexico will pay for this. But the cost is not the most troubling issue. It is the human suffering and the upsetting of the U.S. economy. If the deportation of six million people is accomplished in the first two years of his presidency, this translates to about 8,200 people being rounded up every day. A massive, forced relocation like this has not happened on this scale anywhere. How will this be accomplished? By road blocks and searches, raids on business establishments, knocks on the doors of ordinary people in the middle of the night with Deportation Forces storming in and ransacking every room and looking under beds and in basements? And where does the business community stand on this? How will hotels, restaurants, landscapers, service and health care providers, and construction companies—virtually all businesses– handle a work force where anyone speaking Spanish may disappear overnight? Six million jobs – and the vast majority of those to be deported have jobs –are a lot to fill. Does Trump think that able bodied, “true Americans” are waiting in the wings for an $8.00/hour job?

3. The trade wars will start. Trump says he will grow the economy at 4 percent a year (about twice what it is now) by creating jobs. He will create jobs by bringing them back to the U.S. and is targeting China as the main culprit since so many manufacturing jobs have migrated there. His solution is to impose a 45% tariff on all Chinese exports to the U.S., which Trump believes will close the factories there and bring the jobs back here. China, of course, will reciprocate by putting high tariffs on our exports. Goods shipped to the U.S. from China will skyrocket in price, and U.S. shipments to China will shrink sharply. And China is just one country. Presumably it is just the start. NAFTA will be rewritten in our favor and the Pacific Trade Agreement killed. And where does the business community stand on this? The vast majority of economists see international trade as essential to our economic health and increased global prosperity. It has been a centerpiece of what used to Republican orthodoxy. Most economists believe that trade wars and restrictions would trigger a world-wide recession.

4. Muslims will be targeted as second class citizens. New restrictions will go into effect severely limiting entry to the U.S. of Muslims and people from countries affected by terrorism. It is not clear if Muslims already living here legally will become part of the deportation plan or if mosques will be under surveillance, but Muslims will be singled out as a hostile group to be feared.

 

5. Environmental protections will be relaxed. If you do not believe that global warming exists or that humans have any role in a changing climate, then why bother with limiting carbon emissions or reducing the human carbon footprint? Trump pledges to get the U.S. out of the world global anti-warming initiative that Obama got us into and free up the oil industry to move forward aggressively on extractions. The EPA will be limited as to what it can do and will shrink.

 

6. Millions will lose health insurance. At long last Obama Care will be eliminated, forcing nine million people off health insurance. That a better plan will replace it any time soon is unlikely.

 

7. The Supreme Court will move more to the right. Trump will have one appointment for certain and possibly one or two others. He has promised his supporters to put in a pro life conservative. A second, similar appointment could result in abortion becoming illegal in America.

 

8. The rich will get richer. Though he has softened a bit on this recently, the bulk of his proposed tax cuts will go to the rich and to businesses. Trickle down economics yet again. Trump’s position on a national minimum wage seems to change weekly. At one point in the campaign he advocated for eliminating all laws requiring a minimum wage.

 

9. The deficits will grow. Trump has proposed massive tax cuts while at the same time promising not to touch Medicare, Social Security and other entitlements. Projections by independent experts project significantly higher deficits down the road if his policies are implemented. Economists and others also have been warning for some time that the deficit issue must be addressed, which must involve some restructuring of entitlements. Trump is also promising a few new programs such as support for child care and paid parental leave. All this costs money with no taxes to offset the new expenditures.

 

10. Divisions and tensions in the U.S. will heighted. Trump talks about making America great again but makes no effort to unite the country. He is combative and belligerent toward anyone who does not go along with him. He vows to punish his opponents. Class and racial divisions are likely to worsen. Free speech could be constrained such as allowing reporters who write unflattering articles about people to be sued for liable.

 

11. The world will become a more dangerous place. Trump has no foreign policy experience and admires strongmen like Putin. He has advocated for killing the families of suspected terrorists. He is not sure if he thinks NATO is worth preserving or if the U.S. should oppose Russian expansion into the Baltic countries. He has already asked why if we have nuclear weapons we just don’t use them. Newt Gingrich or Chris Christy or Rudy Giuliani could wind up in cabinet positions affecting war and peace. His history is hitting back hard against anyone who crosses or disrespects him. He has denounced global warming as a hoax. He is the proverbial loose cannon. This actually may be the scariest of all the transformational changes that are likely to happen under a Trump presidency.

 

While many will admit that Trump has said he will do these things, they add that perhaps he really does not mean it; and that once president, he will act more presidential. History suggests otherwise. It actually gets worse. Many in the U.S. and around the world gave people like Hitler, Stalin and Mao the benefit of a doubt in the early days before they showed all their cards. I am not suggesting that Trump fits into that category—at least not yet. But there is no question that his persona is that of a strongman. But you say, even if he is a strong man, in the U.S, we have checks and balances and a constitution. He can’t do all that he wants to.

 

Perhaps not all, but he can do a lot that will in fact make him a transformational president and an agent of change. The question that every voter should ask is this: is this the kind of change that we want for America.

 

–Joe Howell

September 17, 2016

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I am writing a second and last blog post from our drive-around-the-U.S. trip, “The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly.” This one concerns Cows, which whose presence has been a constant theme of our trip.

Cows have been raised by humans since domestication millennia ago, and from what I can figure out, their major goal in life is to eat. At the same time, one major goal for humans is to eat cows (witness the presence of a McDonalds at lots of the interstate intersections).

In Tennessee we visited two friends who (after being a doctor and lawyer respectively) have been gentleman farmers for several years. They both raise beef cows. The cows looked big and healthy to me, and relatively happy, with lots of room to move around and lots of good grass and hay to eat. We learned some interesting facts about the amount of acreage needed to raise a beef cow in verdant Tennessee (not much), the fact that they have sex once a year with the bull on Christmas Day, so that all the calves come about the same time (that bull certainly has a good time on Christmas), and some of the other interesting technicalities of raising beef cows. Females and the few male bulls are somewhat lucky, in that they get to live a pretty nice life as long as they are reproducing, but all the others get slaughtered, which is (of course) the main point of raising beef cows. I did ask about how they slaughtered the cows, which is kind of a sensitive subject (they get “sent off to slaughter”), since the cows are so nice. In spite of some misgivings, I admit I enjoyed the tasty beef for lunch.

This set me up for a shock when we passed, near Amarillo, TX, the largest “feed lot” in the U.S. At first, when I saw it from a distance, I thought some kind of environmental devastation had occurred, but as we got closer I began to discern acres and acres of cows (all white with black spots). They were packed together, lying in the heat, and could not move. I later learned more about the system of “harvesting” cows, which involves shipping the cows from far and wide to these lots where cows are kept in these crowded conditions to fatten up before slaughter. The smell of the feed lot was pervasive for miles and miles around.

Later I was able to talk to a family at Ghost Ranch who had a ranch and raised cattle in Oklahoma, where it takes many more acres per cow because of the dry conditions. They are very aware of the ethical issues I brought up. One thing they have done is giving up branding their cows (too cruel). Because of all the fencing now, it’s not as necessary–happily for the cows. Still they do not slaughter their own cows, so off to the feedlot they go (same as for the Tennessee cows).

Apparently this is also the fate of the milk cows. We just had the wonderful experience of attending the Iowa State Fair (another bucket-list event, well worth a trip). At the fair, we watched the judging of the Holsteins (milk cows who are judged mainly on the size of their udders, which are truly huge). We chatted with one of the keepers, and I brought up my touchy subject again. Just as with the beef cows, once they are no longer producing milk (about 6-8) years, they are also slaughtered for beef. They get to be hamburger, because of their muscular builds. Off to the feed lot and then to McDonalds, I guess.

After my Amarillo experience I was kind of a low key vegetarian for a while. I couldn’t eat steak or hamburger. I kept thinking about those cows lying in the heat. I have always loved the occasional steak or hamburger, and it just didn’t taste right. Then I got to Omaha, and couldn’t resist. I have to admit that steak was very tasty!

I have wondered if there isn’t a better way to slaughter those cows. Why does everyone, even the small scale farmer, send them off to these cruel (and seemingly unsanitary) conditions before they get to the market? I realize that humans have evolved to eat meat (at least some), and that domestication is better than killing off all the wild animals, but isn’t there a better way to accomplish this?

I went to the PETA website, but they don’t have any proposals other than for everyone to be a VEGAN. That’s not for me. I like dairy too much (which then leads me to realizing that all those young male cows and females who no longer produce meat would be off to the feedlot). I think we need another muckraker, to take this to a political level.

Oh, and by the way, I forgot to mention that the Hillary rally I attended in Des Moines was disrupted by animal rights groups. This is apparently a big advocacy group in Iowa. So maybe they will take on the feedlots!

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