On the Fourth of July this year we will celebrate the 250th anniversary of our founding. We have not been a dominant world power the entire time, of course, but since the end of World War II we have had our day in the sun. And no “empire” lasts forever. Think of the major world empires that have ruled the roost on the planet Earth. Wikipedia lists over 125 empires that have come and gone during the time Homo sapiens have dominated the planet. The big ones are well known—the Egyptian, Assyrian, Persian, Greek, Roman, Chinese, Ottoman, Russian, Spanish, Portuguese and the British Empire, which was the largest of all and controlled about a quarter of the world’s population at the beginning of the 20th Century. Decimated by the causalities and deficits inflicted by the Second World War, the Brits retreated and handed the baton to us.

We may not fit into the narrow definition of empire, but Trump sure tries to act like a dictator; and in many ways we have called the shots for the last 50-odd years, which admittedly is a short time for a dynasty to rule. The overall average lifespan for a dynasty is about 250 years according to Wikipedia and about 500 years for the major ones. And just look at what we have accomplished in our short time at the helm.

• The dollar is as close to a world currency as you can get. Embry and I, between the two of us, have visited (or briefly resided in) over 60 countries, and using U.S. money was rarely a problem.
• English is now as close to a universal language as you will find. If an American is in a big city almost anywhere on the planet, he or she can usually get by speaking American English.
• The World Bank is in Washington. The United Nations Headquarters is in New York City. Peace Corps volunteers can be found in poor countries all over the planet. Before Trump terminated it, US AID was a life safer for millions of distressed people throughout the planet.
• The world’s largest financial institutions, the world’s biggest and richest tech companies, and many of the world’s major corporations are American.
• You can usually find a store in the most remote parts of the world where you can by a coke, maybe even a bottle of Jack Daniels, and buy a pair of Levis or grab a box of KFC. And American cars and trucks–especially Fords –are ubiquitous.
• American music is played everywhere. We invented jazz, rock and roll, rhythm and blues, Hip-hop, folk and country music.
• Hollywood films movies still draw big audiences.
• Due in large part to zealous missionaries, Christianity, the major religion in the United States, is also the most popular religion on the planet, with more than 25 percent of us humans identifying ourselves as Christian on the Pew Research surveys.
• And our democratic republic was—and still is for many–the envy of the world.

But if there is one rule that pertains to every empire, it is that it has a beginning and an end. It turns out that a lot of thought and research has gone into figuring out what empires have had in common. There is a terrific essay online by Ray Williams (available on the “Medium” website), which I recommend: “The 250-Year Cycle—How the United States Mirrors the Rise and Fall of Every Empire Before it.” Williams cites Yale historian, Paul Kennedy’s 1987 book, The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, explaining that the key variables are how a country balances wealth generation, military spending, and domestic spending.

Kennedy argues that unraveling happens when military spending is out of control, inequities in incomes increase, wealth is concentrated at the top, the national debt becomes unmanageable, the currency loses its dominance, and infrastructure deteriorates. When these factors are prevalent, trust in institutions declines, leaders focus on short term survival not long term solutions, and public trust evaporates. Corruption becomes normalized. The wind is then sucked out of the sails of those in power, and the political and social structure of a nation starts to fall apart. Sometimes this results in a revolution but most often in a gradual petering out as another nation steps in to fill the gap.

Does any of this sound familiar?

The U.S. military budget for 2026 is $925 billion–$2.5 billion a day–but with the cost of the Iran War, that number is likely to increase to well above $1 trillion. Did you know that the U.S. military has between 750 and 800 bases in over 80 countries? By comparison, the world’s largest imperial power, Great Britian, had at its zenith only 36 military bases. Britian, France, and Russia combined today have a total of only 30 foreign military bases.

Add to this all the other stuff Trump wants to do and the costs are off the charts—the giant parades and spectacles like the “Christian revival” on the mall on May 17, the colossal arch at the end of Memorial Bridge, the renovated reflecting pool, the various statues of himself, the renovation of the “Trump Kennedy Center,” the “magnificent” new ballroom, the even more magnificent “Park of Heroes,” the massive warehouses to imprison undocumented people and the cost to fly them out of the country. When these costs are combined with massive tax breaks for Trump’s rich cronies and megarich billionaires, the national debt will sour.

And I am old enough to remember times that Republicans harped about the need for a balanced budget.

But that is not the worst of it. The worst of it is the tilt of income distribution in the United States, taking money away from social, educational and health care and research initiatives—many designed to help the poor–and putting it in the pockets of Trump’s billionaire friends and his own family.

Williams in his essay cites economist Jeffrey Winter’s description of the “Great American Inversion.” During the last two centuries there were two major “inversions” that affected income distribution in the United States. The first was the steep graduated income tax that was put in place in the early years of the 20th Century. That inversion was reversed by the second inversion in the early 1980s under Reagan when radical reductions of tax rates became law.

Up until the Reagan tax cuts, the working class had made substantial gains. From 1960 to 1980 the bottom 50 percent of population claimed about 20 percent of total income. That share dropped to 12 percent from 2012 to 2015 and is even lower today. The top 10 percent of the population more than doubled their share of national income from 11 percent to more than 20 percent during this period.

And at the same time Trump and the Republican Congress has decimated spending on social and health services for low-income people, reduced funds for medical research, Obamacare, education, climate initiatives, clean injury, and eliminated US AID funding affecting millions of lives around the world. It was the classic bait and switch. Trump campaigned as a populist, promising lower gas and food prices and no “forever wars.” We are now in what could turn out to be another forever war with Iran and the prolonged closing of the Hormuz Straight, which has resulted in massive world-wide disruptions, sky rocketing gas costs and higher food costs. At the same time, funds for infrastructure have plummeted causing more deterioration of U.S. roads and bridges.

And regarding how we compare to other countries, Williams points out that we are by no means Number One in most factors that affect wellbeing. The United States now ranks 35th out of 157 countries for the percentage of people living below the poverty line. We rank fourth worst among the 35 “advanced countries” most like ours regarding income inequality and 33rd out of 145 countries in health care outcomes. We rank 12th overall in college graduation rates and we are ranked 47th out of 179 countries in freedom of the press.

But we are number one in one category. We imprison more people per capita than any other country in the world. Over 6.9 million people are in jail or on parole in the United States, one out of every 32 adults in the country. That number will explode as Trump imprisons and expels millions of undocumented people.

Friends, this is not a positive profile of a country that is supposed to be the greatest nation on Earth. It is not a matter of if the decline of the “American Empire” will happen. The decline is well underway. We have a wannabe strong man at the helm whose corruption puts him in the category of a Mafia boss.

Our decline does not necessarily mean the end of the world for us, however. The UK managed its decline reasonably well. Other great empires have adjusted to the new realities, and some have even become kinder and gentler. That should be our goal now—to try to reorder our priorities and make our country fairer. A little more humility is in order as well.

But our democracy will continue to deteriorate unless we restore a true democratic voting process. The Citizens United decision and other Supreme Court decisions have allowed big corporations and the very wealthy to control the outcomes of voting. We must get rid of gerrymandering, limit all corporate spending in elections, disallow “dark money” and restore the great democratic republic we once had. That should be a major focus if we are to move forward. And even if the Number One position falls to China or another country, what happens in the United States will still make a huge difference.

 

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